February 2020 Monthly Report – Wet and Wild

There was a very wild start to February, although it was relatively mild.

Storm Ciara over the weekend of 8th/9th brought damaging gusts and flooding. The worst of it passed to the South of us, but there was major flooding in Yorkshire and winds gusted to 93mph in Wales.

The River Wear rose dramatically during the morning of Sunday 9th to peak at 3.05m late on the evening, flooding riverside paths.

Wintry showers on 10th-12th. Snowfall for the Midlands, Scotland and Pennines 15-20cm on high ground. Severe drifting on high ground.

The next storm (Storm Dennis) arrived on 15th/16th and was similar to Ciara. The river in Durham peaked at around the 3m mark again and the wind was very strong from the West. It stayed above 3m for many hours this time, with riverside flooding again causing problems. Once again, the south of the country was hit hard, particularly South Wales.

Some snow arrived in Durham late in the month on the 24th, but it lasted less than a day. From waking to a 2” covering on the morning, it had all gone by mid-afternoon.

The third and last big storm of the month (all at weekends!) was Jorge, named by the Spanish Met Office which duly arrived on the 29th (Leap Year this year).

People around the Ironbridge area in Shropshire are in a desperate situation with flooding on the River Severn. There was also extensive flooding in Yorkshire around the Doncaster area.

The mean temperature for February was 5.4 degC by the traditional method of max+min/2 method. The highest absolute maximum was 10.5 degC during the passing of Storm Ciara. There were no air frosts at all recorded during the month.

The 9th was also the wettest day with 23.0mm of rain recorded. We also had yet another monthly total over 70mm in the last 12 months (this was the 7th time). The final total was 88.4mm.

On the last day of February, the barometer fell to 970.9mb during the passing of Storm Jorge (named by the Spanish Met Office). Heavy snow fell on the Pennines and there was a report in the Northern Echo about people being rescued from their cars in the Upper Teesdale area.

There were only 5 days that could be described as anticyclonic. Four of these were in the first week.






Storm Ciara causes flooding in Durham

Storm Ciara batters the UK

After spending a fair bit of time concentrating on the wind speeds, we sort of forgot about the rain that Storm Ciara was going to deliver. Thankfully we missed some of the squall lines that hit further south. My total for rainfall was only 22.9mm, but obviously far more fell on the catchment areas on the Pennines.

A walk to the riverside was needed and as I was coming down from Gilesgate I decided the best way was the pathway that goes directly to the river down past Hild and Bede College.

When I got there, the water was already over the riverside path in both directions.


To my amazement, there were still people trying to jog along the riverside paths! They were using the little levee between the path and the raging river, with all it’s little hidden dips and gaps that are there to catch the unwary. This guy sensibly swapped onto the path and just got his feet wet.

Two kids then came along on their pushbikes. They at least stopped where I was and asked me if I thought it was safe to go on. I explained that it got deeper heading towards Baths Bridge. One of them tried and turned back when it got axle-deep. I wasn’t joking! Once their pedals were underwater it was impossible to pedal anywhere.

A near fatal accident involving the river

I then witnessed something so stupid that I only realised afterwards that we could have had another river fatality on our hands. However it does explain why so many supposedly intelligent people manage to end up in the River Wear.

A girl (a student I think) approached from the rowing club direction. She had a rucksack on and she’d decided she was going to just walk along the grass levee. Unlike the jogger in the photo above, she didn’t fancy getting her feet very wet on the path, so chanced walking the line on the levee, two feet from the raging river. This all took place about 30 yards to my left.

Unknown to her, and concealed by the water, was one of those little muddy ‘chutes that wildlife use. She stepped down Into it and then fell over. She was up to her waist in water, right on the edge of the river. If she’d over-balanced because of the rucksack, she’d have been swept away. It could have even pulled her in, so strong was the current. Somehow, she managed to haul herself back out. How dim can you be????

A lucky escape and as she came past me, dripping wet, she still seemed quite oblivious to the fact that she’d come so close to losing her life. I really do despair sometimes about how little common sense people have. 😳

River Peaked at 3.05m

The river finally peaked at 3.05m. That is about 2.6m above normal.

November 2019 – Wet, Dull and Pretty Dreadful

Cold, Wet and Cheerless

Once again I have poor weather to report for this month. Particularly, high rainfall totals again and an incredible dullness that depressed. I know that November is sometimes a cheerless month, but this one has been really rubbish. The weather has also been cold, with depressed maxima by day, although not too cold at night until the last few days.

I have had a bad cold for most of November and I blame it almost completely on the rank weather November has served up for us all.

No sun – no moon!
No morn – no noon –
No dawn – no dusk – no proper time of day.
No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,
No comfortable feel in any member –
No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,
No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds! –
November!

by Thomas Hood

Rainfall

The month was very wet. The total of 129.1mm was just behind the June total for wettest month of 2019. There were 26 days with rain and 6 days had more than 10mm.

The rain put a big damper on the Durham Lumiére Festival with 5.6, 9.5, 13.7 and 2.2mm falling on the four days from 14th-17th.

The total rainfall represents about 200% of what an average November would bring.

Temperature

Because of all the rain and dullness, November maxima were depressed (like me). The average maximum was 7.5 degC, which is around 2 degC below average. Average minima were around normal at 3.7 degC.

The warmest day of the month was right at the start of the month when a modest 11.3 degC was recorded on the 2nd. The temperature remained below 10 degC from the 4th, and November’s minimum temperature was recorded on the last day, which was very frosty early on. The air temperature was -2.4 degC at 8am.



Some pics from Seaham 27th Nov 2019 (photos courtesy of Paul Levitt)

 

A Met Office Rainfall Graphic – Does it Help?

Here’s a graphic released by the Met Office, attempting to illustrate the wet weather we’ve had in the first half of November 2019.

Now, the first half of November has been pretty wet. In fact 85mm of rain has fallen on Gilesgate since the start of November, continuing the soggy 6 months we’ve had.

I looked at the map and was surprised to see that the Durham was in the white area. Usually this means ‘around average’ on Met Office maps. I checked the key and it says that white represents between 75 and 125% of average.

Now this surprised me. The mean for November in Durham is 72mm. So, I would expect the average for the first 17 days to be calculated as

(72 x 17)/30 = 41mm

So, by my calculations we’ve had 85/41 times the expected rainfall for the first 17 days. That feels about right. More than 200% of normal. Yes, it’s been wet.

Why is the graphic not showing the Durham area as Dark Blue on the map then?

Well, i’ve been having the conversation with Liam Dutton, Jen Bartram and a few others on Twitter. The graphic is showing the first 17 days of November 2019 against a whole 30 days of an average November.

What is the point? Well apparently the point is to prove that some areas have had double the rainfall in the first 17 days that November would expect in a whole month.

Does it come over that way?

My point to Liam and Jen is that I don’t think it does. It makes a great swathe of the country look average, or even below average (coloured brown) when we all know it’s been very wet. Liam points me to the small print and says this explains it all.

Isn’t the whole point of a graphic to simplify the message? To make it easy to digest the information they are attempting to put over?

We are living in an age where sadly people misinterpret things if they’re not presented properly. In my opinion, this graphic is confusing and doesn’t convey the message, which should be:

“All areas have been wet, but Nottinghamshire has been excessively wet.”

I don’t think this graphic makes that clear at all. What do you think?

Winter Chills : The Great Winters of 1947 and 1963 in the UK

This is archived content that used to be on the Met Office website, but isn’t anymore so I decided to resurrect it for posterity, adding my own comments and adaptions. It’s a page to refer to when people talk about the harsh winters of 1946-47 and 1962-63, the two UK winters that are used as benchmarks for how bad winter can get.

Rarely in the UK – or anywhere, for that matter – is a train completely buried in snow. But that’s exactly what happened on Dartmoor in March 1891 and in northern Scotland in January 1978. The winters that produced such phenomenal snowstorms were not, however, generally snowy – unlike the remarkable winter of 1947, the snowiest since 1814.

picture of a car stuck in snow at Hebden Bridge – 1963

Fig 1: A car stuck in snow at Hebden Bridge – 1963

Severe winters

Since daily meteorological records began in Britain in the 17th century, there have been a number of severe winters. The coldest of all was probably 1684, when the diarist John Evelyn took a coach to Lambeth along the frozen River Thames. Frost Fairs were frequent as the flow of the Thames was restricted by the bridges, slowing it down and making it more susceptible to freezing over.

There was an exceptionally cold and protracted winter in 1739/40 when, between November 1739 and May 1740, snow fell on 39 days in the London area. January in both 1795 and 1814 were colder than January 1740, and the month of February in 1855, 1895 and 1947 were colder than February 1740.

England and Wales would have to wait 223 years for a winter as cold as 1740: this came in 1963.

But what was so remarkable about the 1739/40 winter however, is that the mean temperatures of both January and February were below freezing (0 °C) in the Midlands and southern England. The only other known instance of two successive months with mean temperatures below freezing took place in December 1878 and January 1879.

Before the brutal winter of 1962-63, there was also the equally notorious winter of 1946-47.

The serious snowfall in 1947

Although there were many shorter wintry interludes before Christmas in the winter of 1946-47, the ‘famous’ part of the winter didn’t really get going until the last third of January (see below).

From 22th January to 17th March in 1947, snow fell every day somewhere in the UK, with the weather so cold that the snow accumulated to a great depth. The temperature seldom rose more than a degree or two above freezing, which meant that very little melt occurred and snow just piled up, layer upon layer, until great drifts were everywhere.

There were several snowfalls of 60cm (2 ft) or more, and depths of level snow reached 150 cm (6 ft) in upper Teesdale and the Denbighshire Hills. Across Britain, drifts more than five metres (16 ft) deep blocked roads and railways. People were cut off for days. The armed services dropped supplies by helicopter to isolated farmsteads and villages, and helped to clear roads and railways.

The Calm Before the Storm

In mid January 1947, no-one expected the winter to go down in the annals as the snowiest since 1814 and among the coldest on record. After two cold spells that had failed to last – one before Christmas 1946, the other during the first week of January – the weather had turned unseasonably mild.

0600 UTC on 31 January 1947. A low near the channel islands and high over southern Scandinavia, a typical pressure situation during the 1947 winter. Occlusion giving snow over southern counties of England

Fig 2: 0600 UTC on 31 January 1947. A low near the channel islands and high over southern Scandinavia, a typical pressure situation during the 1947 winter. Occlusion giving snow over southern counties of England.

During the night of 15-16th January, the temperature at Leeming in North Yorkshire didn’t fall below 11.7 °C. The following day, maximum temperatures close to 14 °C were recorded in Norfolk, Herefordshire and Flintshire. All this mildness was soon to change.

An area of high pressure moved northwards from France on 18th January. Two days later, the anticyclone was centred off north-west Norway. It then drifted south-east to southern Scandinavia, and dominated the weather over the British Isles for the rest of the month. The first night frost came on the 20th and the winter began in earnest on the 23rd, when snow fell heavily over the south and south-west of England. Even in the Isles of Scilly, a few centimetres of snow fell. The blizzard in south-west England was the worst since 1891; many villages in Devon were isolated.

1947’s Unrelenting harsh weather

  • The cold, snowy weather continued through February and into March. Any breaks in the cold weather were short-lived.
  • On no day in February 1947 did the temperature at Kew Observatory top 4.4 °C, and only twice in the month was the night minimum temperature above 0 °C
  • The mean maximum temperature for the month was 0.5 °C (6.9 °C below average) and the mean minimum was -2.7 °C (4.6 °C below average)
  • On 26 of the month’s 28 days, snow was lying at 0900 UTC
  • South of a line from The Wash to the River Dee, mean maximum temperatures were everywhere more than 5.5 °C below average and, in some places, more than 7 °C below average
  • Mean minimum temperatures were more than 4 °C below average everywhere in the south and south-west of England, and almost 6 °C below average in some places

February 1947 was the coldest February on record in many places and, for its combination of low temperatures with heavy snow, bore comparison with January 1814.

One notable feature of February 1947 was the lack of precipitation in parts of western Scotland. Because of the persistent anticyclonic conditions, some places that were normally very wet had no rain at all. A completely dry month in western Scotland is unusual. It was unprecedented in February.

Another unusual feature of February 1947 was the lack of sunshine in the Midlands and south of England – a complete contrast to the north-west of Scotland, where the weather was unusually sunny.

At Kew, Nottingham and Edgbaston, there was no sun on 22 of the month’s 28 days. At Kew, there was none at all from the 2nd to the 22nd. Hardly anywhere in the Midlands and southern England did the sunshine totals for the month exceed 40 per cent of the long term average.

When skies did clear, night-time temperatures plunged. A minimum of -21 °C was recorded at Woburn in Bedfordshire early on 25 February. Without the cloud, the month would almost certainly have been even colder than it was, certainly at night.

March 1947 : More snow, flooding and then gales

In some parts of the British Isles, snow fell on as many as 26 days in February 1947. Much of the snow was powdery and was soon whipped into deep drifts by the strong winds.

If February hadn’t been enough, March was even worse. In the first half of the month, there were more gales and heavy snowstorms.

A picture of a bus driving through water during the flooding of 1947

Fig 3: The flooding of 1947

On 4th and 5th March, heavy snow fell over most of England and Wales, with severe drifting. On 6th March, drifts were five metres (16 ft) deep in the Pennines and three metres (10 ft) deep in the Chilterns. In some places, glazed frost occurred. On 10th and 11th March, southern Scotland had its heaviest snowfall of the winter, and the snowstorm reached the Scottish Highlands, where, on 12th March, drifts more than seven metres (23 ft) deep were reported.

Meanwhile, mild air with a temperature of 7-10 °C edged into the extreme south-west of the British Isles on 10th March, bringing rain. The ensuing thaw was rapid. By the evening of 11th March, vast areas of southern England were under water. After weeks of frost, the ground was frozen hard. The rain and meltwater couldn’t soak into the ground. Surface run-off was the only option.

The warm air spread northwards and eastwards. Meltwater from the Welsh mountains poured into the valleys of the Severn and Wye, flooding Herefordshire and Gloucestershire. The rivers of the English Midlands burst their banks. By 13th March, Fenland rivers were close to overspilling.

On 15th March, a deepening depression from the Atlantic approached the British Isles, bringing rain and severe gales. During the afternoon of 16th March, mean winds over southern England reached 50 knots, with gusts of 80-90 knots.

Buildings were damaged and waves were whipped up on floodwaters. In East Anglia, where the major rivers flow north-eastwards, the south-westerly wind drove water before it and waves pounded the dykes. Water levels rose and the dykes gave way. Most of the Fenland was inundated. Troops were called in, but they could do little to stop water pouring through the breached dykes.

River levels rose relentlessly. For example, the banks of the Trent burst at Nottingham on 18th March and hundreds of homes were flooded, many to first floor level. When floodwater reached the tidal part of the Trent, it was impeded by a high spring tide, and the whole of the lower Trent valley was flooded.

The floods in the West Country subsided after 20th March, but rivers continued to rise in eastern England. The Wharfe, Derwent, Aire and Ouse all burst their banks and flooded a huge area of southern Yorkshire. The town of Selby was almost completely under water. Only the ancient abbey and a few streets around the market place escaped inundation. Seventy per cent of all houses in the town were flooded.

A graph of Maximum and minimum temperatures Edgbaston, Warwickshire 15 Dec 1946-16 Mar 1947

Fig 4: Maximum and minimum temperatures
Edgbaston, Warwickshire 15 Dec 1946-16 Mar 1947

The cold and snowy weather had, at last, ended, but the misery of the floods continued into the spring. And to make matters worse, the severe difficulties caused by the winter of 1947 were aggravated by the fuel and food shortages that remained after the Second World War.

1962-63 was the coldest winter since 1740

The winter of 1962/63 was the coldest over England and Wales since 1740. As in 1947, anticyclones to the north and east of the British Isles brought bitterly cold winds from the east day after day. As in 1947, depressions followed tracks to southward of the British Isles and their fronts brought snow to England, Wales and the southernmost parts of Scotland.

Mean maximum temperatures for January 1963 were more than 5 °C below average over most of Wales, the Midlands and southern England and in some places more than 7 °C below average. Mean minimum temperatures over this area were equally far below average. The story was much the same in February.

The winter began abruptly, just before Christmas in December 1962. The weather in the first three weeks of December was changeable and sometimes stormy, but not particularly snowy. From the 4th to the 6th December, London experienced its worst spell of fog since the Great Smog of 1952.

Ten days later, the weather was particularly wet and stormy, with a gust of 88 knots recorded at Blackpool during the night of 15/16th December, the strongest since records began there in 1946. The weather situation changed markedly on 22nd December. On the 23rd, high pressure extended all the way from the southern Baltic to Cornwall, bringing cold easterly winds to much of England and Wales.

A belt of rain over northern Scotland on Christmas Eve turned to snow as it moved south, giving Glasgow its first white Christmas since 1938. The snow belt reached southern England on Boxing Day and became almost stationary. The following day, snow lay five centimetres deep in the Channel Islands and 30 cm (1 ft) deep in much of southern England.

Weather chart showing the start of the winter: the cold front that brought the snow to England on 26 December 1962. Chart for 0600 UTC on 26 December.

Fig 5: The start of the winter: the cold front that brought the snow to England on 26 December 1962. Chart for 0600 UTC on 26 December.

A blizzard over south-west England and south Wales on 29th and 30th December brought snowdrifts 6m (20 ft) deep. Villages were cut off, some for several days. Roads and railways were blocked. Telephone wires were brought down. Stocks of food ran low. Farmers couldn’t reach their livestock. Thousands of sheep, ponies and cattle starved to death in the fields.

From Boxing Day 1962 to early March 1963, much of England was continuously under snow. Unlike the winter of 1947, however, 1962/63 was sunnier than average in most parts of the area affected, considerably so in some places.

Manchester’s sunshine total for January was more than twice the average. Even in the south of England, where snow fell frequently, sunshine totals were above average in most places.

The most remarkable feature of the 1962/63 winter was not so much its snowiness as its coldness. The winter of 1947 was snowier than 1962/63, but not as cold.

In January 1963, there were 25 or more air frosts almost everywhere in southern England and south Wales. In February 1963, air frost occurred every night at Durham, and almost every night in the English Midlands. At several stations in southern England and south Wales, mean maximum temperatures were below 0 °C in January and little higher in February. Mean minimum temperatures were well below freezing almost everywhere in England, Wales and Scotland away from coasts. Extremely low temperatures were recorded – for example, a minimum of -22.2 °C was recorded at Braemar on 18th January.

A graph of Maximum and minimum temperatures Leckford, Hampshire 8 Dec 1962 - 9 Mar 1963

Fig 6: Maximum and minimum temperatures
Leckford, Hampshire 8 Dec 1962 – 9 Mar 1963

Lakes and rivers froze. Ice formed on harbours in the south and east of England. Patches of ice formed on the sea. Huge blocks of ice formed on beaches where waves broke and the spray froze. Coastal marine life suffered severely.

As in 1947, so it was in the winter of 1962/63: brief thaws occurred from time to time, and winter didn’t fully relax its grip before early March. In the last few days of February and the first few days of March 1963, sunny weather brought afternoon temperatures of 4 or 5 °C, but clear skies allowed temperatures to plummet at night. Frosts were moderate or severe.

At last, on 4th March, a mild south-westerly flow of air reached the British Isles. There was occasional rain that day in most parts of Britain, and further rain the following day in the west and north, this time prolonged. On 6th March, there was no frost anywhere in the British Isles and the temperature in London reached 17 °C – the highest since 25th October 1962.

The coldest winter over England and Wales since 1740, and the coldest over Scotland since 1879, had ended. With the thaw came flooding, but nothing like the scale of the 1947 floods. Soon after the winter of 1962/63, life returned to normal.

photograph of a boat stranded and surrounded by ice in a harbour in southern england ring the winter of 1962-63

Fig 7: Coastal areas were affected by ice
Photo © Lynn Tait Gallery

River Wear burst it’s banks : this time it’s 1950

Discovered this one today, via Facebook (credit Julian Harrop and the Beamish Archive). It shows a guy cycling through floodwater in 1950 (unknown exact date). The riverside was a bit different then. The bus shelters can be seen to the right of the photograph (Gypsy Queen, Diamond and Hammel bus stops).

Some of the worst floods ever in Durham were in 1793 and 1903. Here’s some data for the 1903 episode.

8th October 1903

Extensive flooding on Tyne, Wear and Tees and also on some smaller tributaries with much urban flooding especially in Sunderland (Details from Echo not provided since it is a prolonged rainstorm.) A depression moving from the Bristol Channel to the Wash brought heavy rain to NE England accompanied by an E to Se gale especially around Newcastle giving rise to floods and interruption of telegraphic communication. Totals decrease inland. Tees flooded in many places including the roads at Croft and Neasham. Yarm was flooded for the first time in 11 years affecting High Street and the Skinyard. Widespread floodplain flooding.

Rainfall: Heavy continuous rain; Middlesbrough Albert Park 2.29”; Middlesbrough Ormesby 2.81” (1.95” in 12 hours); Stockton Rimswell 2.30”; West Hartlepool 2.90”; Hurworth Burn 3.45”; Hart resvr 2.45”; Durham Observatory2.51”; Waskerley Resvr 2.52”; Smiddy Shaw Resvr 2.67”; Seaham Dalton PS 3.14”; Fencehouses 3.25”; Seaham Harbour 2.48”; Ryhope PS 2.84”; W Hendon 2.59”; Sunderland Fever Hosp 2.72“; Claxheugh Grove 3.03”; Sunderland The Cedars 2.94“; Newcastle Clifton Rd 2.67”; Newcastle Lit & Phil 3.66”; Newcastle Northumberland Rd 2.29”; Newcastle Claremont Rd 2.68”; Newcastle Leazes Pk 3.25”; Newcastle Town Moor 3.68“; Jesmond Welburn 3.34”; N Shields 2.58”; Tynemouth 2.50”; Angerton Hall 2.69”; Morpeth Bothalhaugh 3.22“; Morpeth Longhirst 3.45”; Cockle Park 2.87”; Cragside 2.58”; Alnwick Castle 2.68”
Source: BR; Sunderland Daily Echo Oct 9

– from Chronology : NE website

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